Mamdani Momentum

Is a socialist earthquake about to hit the epicentre of free market capitalism?

Zohran Mamdani

Summer has arrived in New York City and the temperature is rising. Hot June political heat. Early voting for the Democratic mayoral primary is now underway and will continue through to Sunday, with the primary election day itself taking place next Tuesday. Though the final mayoral election is still months away (Tuesday 4^th November), the stakes in this primary could not be higher. With a tightening race and an increasingly energised base, one big question has emerged: is Zohran Mamdani – a 33-year-old New York State Assemblymember and democratic socialist – about to pull off a stunning upset and clinch the Democratic nomination for mayor?

The establishment may not be ready, but the surge of momentum around Mamdani is unmistakable. His campaign has grown from the outer edge of possibility to the centre of this race. His rallies are drawing bigger crowds. His platform is setting the tone for debate. And, critically, his poll numbers are rising. Just a couple of months ago, Politico was writing off his chances as a hopeful challenge. Now Politico reports the latest polling, showing Mamdani elevated to the top of the field and leading his main rival, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Hope is becoming expectation. Hope is contagious.

This contest has the potential to set the tone of politics across western democracies in the immediate future, especially in major metro urban centres. So, you don’t need to be a New Yorker to have a stake in this race.

That said, I have a somewhat unexpected connection to the city, rooted specifically in Brooklyn. My son was born at University Hospital at Downstate, not far from Prospect Park. My Puerto Rican uncle spent his formative years in Bedford-Stuyvesant during the 1950s and 1960s. A big part of my focus right now is on gentrification and urban displacement in Brooklyn.

Whenever I visit friends or colleagues in the city, I’m struck by what I learn of the cost-of-living pressures. Anecdotally, I seem to know more and more folks moving out to New Jersey or further beyond. The status quo is unsustainable; the time is surely ripe for an anti-establishment politician to take the reins and try to chart a different course.

From the New Yorkers I’m speaking to there's the customary energy but it seems mixed with a combination of anticipation, impatience and exasperation. In a city where every neighbourhood can feel like a world of its own, the race for mayor is more than just politics. It tends to also be about identity; a reflection of who people are and who they’re hoping to become … or no longer be.

“New Yorkers are hungry for a different kind of politics. We have seen the same politicians with the same ideas lead us to the same results for decades. This is in many ways a question of whether we want to go back to the past, or whether we want to go to the future.”

- Zohran Mamdani, speaking as a guest on The Breakfast Club

Zohran Mamdani is hoping to be the person New Yorkers can see themselves, and their futures, in. He has built his campaign around a bold, unapologetically progressive agenda (by U.S. standards). His vision is clear: transform New York City into a more just, affordable and inclusive place to live.

Among his signature proposals are a citywide fare-free and faster bus system, the construction of 200,000 new rent-stabilised housing units and the creation of a Department of Community Safety to rethink public safety. Mamdani is also offering a groundbreaking proposal to establish a network of publicly owned grocery stores to combat food insecurity and price gouging.

Add to that Mamdani’s call to freeze rent for all stabilised tenants, raise the minimum wage to $30 per hour by 2030 and provide universal free childcare for every child aged 6 weeks to 5 years, and it’s evident that Mamdani is not running a campaign of incremental tweaks; he’s going for systemic change. He plans to fund it through raising the corporate tax rate to match New Jersey’s 11.5%, which is estimated to bring an additional $5 billion to the city’s budget. He says he will also tax the wealthiest 1% of New Yorkers – those earning more than $1 million annually – a flat 2% tax.

It’s certainly got the New York Post rattled. If Mamdani wins the Democratic nomination then we can expect the most vicious smear campaign against him, possibly surpassing anything we’ve seen before in American political history. Think “swift boating” – on steroids. We’ve already had a taste of what’s to come, with Cuomo insisting on deliberately mispronouncing Mamdani’s name and a Cuomo-supporting political action committee (PAC) employing islamophobic dog whistle tactics.

Remarkably, after so many years as a prominent leader in New York politics, there’s no record of Cuomo visiting a mosque and he couldn’t recall ever having done so when asked about it in the last mayoral debate. This is astonishing given there are an estimated 1.5 million Muslims in New York, a state he used to lead.

Despite the dirty tricks being thrown his way, Mamdani shows no sign of being deterred. Just last week he dealt with the debate salvos fired at him from Andrew Cuomo and Whitney Tilson and, frankly, wiped the floor with them.

Importantly, he’s not just promising big ideas. Despite only being 33 years old, Mamdani has established a track record of turning principles into policy. He played a key role in securing over $100 million to increase subway service and helped pilot a fare-free bus programme across New York City. His ability to mobilise grassroots support, especially among younger voters and working-class communities, is proving crucial in an election where turnout could be everything. Incredibly, more than 26,000 people have signed up to volunteer for a campaign that says it is edging towards a million doors knocked on.

The dynamics of the race only add more intrigue. Mamdani faces not only the former Governor but incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, the latter now running as an independent (which Cuomo has also indicated he will do, irrespective of whether he wins the Democratic nomination or not). The fractured field, combined with the enthusiasm Mamdani is generating, could very well create the conditions for a breakthrough in November. He also has the backing of the Working Families Party and a growing number of labour and progressive organisations, giving him institutional support to match his street-level momentum.

Watching last week’s debate, I wondered whether Cuomo was starting to look drained and defeated. The contrast with fresh Mamdani couldn’t have been starker. Whilst it would be foolish to write Cuomo off, he seemed like a shadow of his former self: yesterday’s man, struggling to defend his record in office … and lashing out.

Zohran Mamdani rides the subway

Born in Kampala to Indian-Ugandan parents, Mamdani moved to New York as a seven-year-old and became a U.S. citizen 20 years later, in 2018. He is a local politician with global appeal. His middle name is Kwame, after Kwame Nkrumah, Ghana’s first prime minister following independence from Great Britain.

If Mamdani does win the primary, it would be historic and the implications could be profound: for New York, the national political landscape and beyond America’s shores. London should certainly be paying attention with 2028 in mind. A Mamdani victory would send a powerful signal that unapologetic democratic socialism is not only viable but resonant with voters in our major global cities.

It could also set up a fascinating dynamic with Donald Trump, whose record of inflammatory attacks on progressive politicians is well-documented. Given Trump’s past treatment of London Mayor Sadiq Khan, whom he once derided as a “stone cold loser” as part of a social media spat, it’s not hard to imagine an ongoing feud between the second Trump administration and Mayor Mamdani – who, like Khan, is a Muslim. It has the makings of a defining flashpoint in American political life in the years ahead.

So, are we on the verge of a Mamdani moment?

We’ll find out next week. But if the excitement on the ground is any indication, what was once a long shot might just become New York’s story of the summer. With just days to go, increasingly attention is turning to this nomination. Whether Mamdani wins or not, the momentum he has unleashed will be difficult for the Democratic Party establishment to contain.

So far, the wave of populism sweeping through the U.S. in the past decade or so has only favoured the right. Yes, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) have reinvigorated contemporary political discourse, but they haven’t captured high executive office. Victory for New York’s young democratic socialist next week could signal the pendulum beginning to turn towards leftist populism; not just in New York and not just in America.

The city that never sleeps could be about to deliver a rude awakening for the neoliberal establishment; a political earthquake with reverberations stretching far and wide. Because, as we all know: if you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.

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